a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment by b_b
b_b  ·  125 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: January 24, 2024

    An incumbent candidate whom the majority of his party views as the victim of a stolen election mustered 51% of primary votes in mutherfucking Iowa.

I think it's worse than that. There were like 110,000 voters out of 700,000 registered republicans in the state. So that 110,000 represents the most die hard republicans. Caucuses do not represent a valid statistical sample. So if anything, I think that his numbers are worse than the early indications. This is a very far cry from 2020 when they literally made their entire platform "MAGA, bitches!" The NH result was probably even worse, given that Haley won over 60% of independents. Biden may be unpopular generally, but there's no way those independents split more than 50% for Trump in the general. I think the pollsters say he needs 90+% of GOP voters and more than half of independents to have a realistic shot of winning. IA and NH seem to be really dim for the Trump campaign, despite all the catastrophizing from NYT today.