I think Putin has shot his wad - there has been every attempt to foment general war in the Middle East and it has failed. Support for Ukraine is broadly and deeply popular in the United States. Democratic economic policies have lifted millions of people out of poverty. I think there's no reason for the country to break up - Americans like the freedom of going "fuck you California I'm moving to Texas" with the only result being a change in their state income tax. There is a manufactured polarization at play that has been culminating for 50 years... but culminate it has. When even Florida starts walking back book bans you know people are getting sick of this shit. Trevor Noah had an interesting observation a couple-three days ago. He noted that in Europe, citizens' deepest criticisms and political humor are for the politicians they voted for, not against while in America, your guy can do absolutely no wrong. I don't think that's going to change any time soon but the existential hatred gripping both sides politically has just run out of room - on the left you have "I think we should have a government" and on the right you have "Trump should have god-like powers" and the god-likes haven't accomplished anything popular with the general electorate. Biden's best move is to keep the lights on while Trump implodes. Biden and his team have been winning elections since 1972; I'm not about to count them out.Biden doesn't seem to have a decisive campaign ready to persuade voters that he's the man and he's taking a beating from the left and right.
I've consistently found you over optimistic about over big picture U.S. politics. Guns is the one that stands out most clearly. In a country that has now tightly restricted abortion in just about half of the states I think bounds of the possible are wider than I've ever seen them. I hope you aren't right. While the breakup would be painful, I think many places would realize futures that would be more fruitful than they would otherwise be. The costs would be significant and the benefits would probably not be evenly spread out.
When you say "over optimistic" you mean "don't share in the doom and gloom everyone else feels compelled to share?" 'cuz I'm the only mutherfucker up in this bitch who isn't rending his hair shirt and screaming about civil war? Do me a solid. Go search for "mosley" in the upper right over there. You will find thread. After thread. After thread. Of people decrying the downfall of the United States and me going "naah." 'member how the midterms were going to be the end of democracy? And how instead the Republicans ended up with an 8 (now 6) vote majority? Name one thing. Name One. Fucking. Thing. That has gone in the Republicans' favor since November 2020. No, you don't get to count repealing roe v. wade because abortion bans are deeply unpopular. No, you don't get to count book bans because they are deeply unpopular. No, you don't get to count trans bans because they are deeply unpopular. The Republicans were the dog who caught the car in 2016. For all intents and purposes, they passed a giant tax package for rich people and noped the fuck out. Since then, it has been a party of dipshits and wastrels whose signature accomplishments have been (A) waiting to expel George Santos until they couldn't even feel moral about it (B) giving handjobs on camera in a children's musical (C) slavishly adulating Hunter Biden's junk to the exclusion of all else (D) shutting down the government through their own internecine clown show of a civil war. Look into my eyes. I'm not optimistic. I'M CORRECT. And here we are. Trump can barely scrape up a majority of Republicans in Iowa. With Desantis and Ramaswamy dropping out of the race, he improved THREE POINTS in New Hampshire. I'ma pitch you a sci fi story you tell me how it ends - you're God Emperor of Dune. You have been unfairly cast out of your throne by a bunch of malfeasant lickspittles whose sole mission in life is to turn children gay. You assemble your armies and sweep through the marketplace where...vaguely more than half of your most dedicated and loyal subjects say they want you to regain the throne. Whattaya think? That scepter gonna be yours again? I mean, the stakes couldn't be higher. Aliens are swarming across the border. The insurgency is putting microchips in the vaccines. Drag queens are reading to children at libraries! And yet your loyalest subjects are firmly at "meh." Hey you know what I haven't linked because everyone is too busy sad-sacking their way through an election year? the downfall of fucking Wayne LaPierre. Yeah yeah one guy yeah yeah educate yourself before you go toe to toe on this one. Much like global warming can pretty much be tied to six guys at Exxon, American gun culture comes down to Wayne LaPierre and Wayne LaPierre alone. You know who I stopped talking to in 2016? my liberal friends. You know why? Because they wanted to piss and moan, they didn't want to discuss reality. Was Trump bad? Fucking of course he was. Was he effective? He: (1) passed some temporary tax cuts (2) stirred up a culture war hornet's nest that has gone consistently against the Republicans (3) presided over Mitch McConnell's 30 year strategy to avenge Robert Bork (4) dragged the Republican Party fully and completely to crazytown. Feel free to disagree. Feel free to continue to piss and moan. But when the facts and track record are on my side, do me the courtesy of acknowledging that my position amounts to more than fucking optimism.Guns is the one that stands out most clearly.